With Obama pulling ahead in the polls at an incredible rate, speculation is beginning to pile up. With only 22 days left (!!!!) it is only natural for the always forward-looking voters to begin looking at who is "going to" win. However, there is danger in speculating that Obama has it in the bag. While most opinion polls show Obama and his running mate Biden head and shoulders above their republican opponents, it means little at this point in the game. As Columbus mayor Michael B. Coleman says, "Republicans are lousy at governing, but they're excellent at winning elections." And McCain is pulling out all the stops to enhance his campaign, dealing low blows right and left (see previous post). He has less money left than Obama, but McCain's struggles are giving him more media coverage in a round-about fashion, as the radio and television speculate on just why he's falling so far behind. In this way his curse becomes his blessing, and everyone knows it is easier to catch up than to stay ahead, especially in the fickle world of politics.
Just to clarify: I say that Obama is ahead in the polls, but it may mean nothing. We recently put out an "Obama/ Biden" sign in front of our house, and the next day our neighbors had put out a "McCain/ Palin" sign directly across from us. Our car now sports a democratic party bumper sticker, but I have seen just as many republican ones, or the "NObama" stickers, around Charlottesville. The city, acting as a microcosm of our country, is divided, and I cannot help having a creeping premonition of something huge coming up in the next few weeks that will set this race in concrete... I await it's occurrence eagerly, because one thing our country doesn't need right now is more animosity amongst ourselves.
Well, lets see where this goes... let me know if you see that big race-changing event happening!
xoxo heN
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2 comments:
Good piece. I would be looking for what comes out just before the debates to try to gain the indy vote. C/Vill proper is not that divided. Once you get into the county, it is more so. Both sides intend to publish new economic plans today and Wednesday as a way to push numbers their way.
I would also look into the Bradly Effect and explore how the poll numbers are either right on target or off by as much of 6% because some white voters will survey for OBama but vote against him.
I concur with Paul P here; McCain just unveiled a 52+ billion dollar economic distress relief package...clearly looking to tickle middle class votes and indy votes, both of which he needs.
The Bubba Effect is also thought to possess that 6% unknown of folks ( white) that will remain invisible until election day, and then cast against Obama.
The tipping point, you say? I canot help but think it will come at the expense of Gov. Palin or her "first dude" husband, Todd.
Great entry...keep up the great work.
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